Elon Musk Predicts AGI, Self-driving, Unlimited Energy, Robots Coming SOON
Elon Musk recently participated in a talk where he discussed the future of artificial intelligence (AI), self-driving technology, and robotics. Musk emphasized the profound impact that AI will have on the world, particularly in the realm of self-driving cars. He mentioned that Tesla has been working tirelessly on developing fully autonomous vehicles and is close to achieving this feat.
Musk also touched on the rapid advancements in AI technology, stating that AI computing power is increasing exponentially every six months. This growth is leading to significant developments in various areas, such as customer service chatbots and industrial robotics. Musk even hinted at the creation of humanoid robots that can perform tasks similar to humans.
Regarding the future of AI and its impact on productivity, Musk expressed optimism about the potential for dramatic increases in productivity across all industries. He noted that there may be some challenges and constraints as AI technology continues to evolve, such as shortages in neural net chips and voltage step-down transformers.
Overall, Musk’s insights highlight the exciting and transformative potential of AI, self-driving technology, and robotics in the near future. As we continue to witness rapid advancements in these fields, it’s clear that we are on the brink of the biggest technology revolution ever seen. So, buckle up and get ready for a future filled with AI, self-driving cars, and intelligent robots.
Watch the video by Matthew Berman
Video Transcript
Welcome big hand to Elon Musk thank you thank oh how are you good fantastic we have we have had two we have two days of AI and geni and whatsoever but you look real my head is very big in the screen added reality too I suppose we have had so much talk about
AI in these two days so we need your opinion what do you think about the next 5 to 10 years on AI please give us a artificial insemination elligence what do you think about that okay but try try audience I say um yes artificial intelligence is is is
Certainly going to profoundly change the world one of the most significant ways is self-driving so we’ve been putting a lot of effort into self-driving technology for cars you you don’t see it quite as much in Europe because we we first have to make it work in the US
Before we increase the complexity of TR of make it elsewhere in the world but I think we’re quite close to having the car be fully autonomous so for example like right now I could I’m in Austin and if I went to drive say to the airport
The car could take me to the airport with no interventions using and all it’s using are digital neural Nets other words artificial intelligence and ceras so there’s no lar radar nothing and in fact if you think about how humans drive cars humans are biological neural Nets
And we use eyes so it’s the eyes and biological neur Nets the analog is digital the analog for digital is cameras and digital neural Nets this is working remarkably well the it has been quite difficult to do this because turns out that in order to use in order for
This to work the car has to really be quite fully intelligent really as as a subset for example has to learn how to read everything and and and how to assess intention among drivers and pedestrians so it’s it’s you’re end up creating sort of a baby artificial general intelligence to solve this but
This will obviously be extremely profound and OB I’m talking about Automotive here I’ll get into the broader question in a minute but the the average use of a passenger vehicle is only about 10 hours per week out of hours the point at which it is autonomous I think You’ see probably a
Third of the hours being used because it would be like a taxi maybe my guess is like 50 to 60 hours which means that the utility of a passenger vehicle would increase by uh a factor of five and this this is gigantic but we’ll see so that
That’s the one motive then there’s what people have think have certainly experienced online where you can ask it a question and ask for an essay or a picture or to understand a picture and that is progressing rapidly what what I’m seeing in terms of AI compute is I’ve never seen any technology Advance
Faster than this the the artificial intelligence compute coming online appears to be increasing by a factor of 10 every 6 months like obviously that cannot continue at at such a high rate for for ever or or will exceed the mass of the universe but I’ve never seen
Anything like it and this is why you see nvidia’s market cap being so gigantic CU they currently have the best neural net chips I mean I think the didn’t nvidia’s market cap exceed the GDP of Canada or something recently anyway was quite high so yeah you know it may go higher who
Knows chip Rush is bigger than any Gold Rush that has ever existed so and then there will also be robots like humanoid humanoid robots not not just sort industrial industrial industrial robots are of course familiar with you use industrial robots we use industrial robots everyone does but they’re programmed explicitly and they they
Don’t walk around but Tesla with for example the Optimus program is making a humanoid robot that is capable of doing almost anything a human can do um I mean I hope I just hope the the robots are nice to us you know we hope so we hope
So too youon that the robots will be nice to us and maybe let’s say in this regard because you are working on what can we expect of let’s say support which is going to come maybe also a little bit with regard to production because in the BOS connected world we were also
Discussing application of AI gen AI into production in order to Bo productivity maybe a couple of thoughts on this one too well the plus side of AI is that I think productivity will increase dramatically so across every field whether it be manual labor to supply chain Logistics there’s already a lot of
Movement to use chatbots like sophisticated chatbots for customer service for example where they can answer quite quite complex questions already but I mean I think we really are on the edge of probably the biggest technology Revolution that has ever existed you know there’s supposedly at
Sort of a Chinese curse may you live in interesting times Well we live in the most interesting of times the most most interesting and for for a while I was a little bit it was making me bit a bit depressed frankly cuz I was like well
Will we be will they take over will we be useless but then the way that I reconciled myself to this question was would I rather be alive to see AI apocalypse or not I’m like I guess I’d like to see this uh you know that’s a good thought going
To be boring that’s a good thought because you mentioned every six months that’s an exponential curve right exponential curves are beautiful but there’s kind of a question where does it ever end right do you see any end yet or will it go on for 3 four five years like
This because then we talk 100 folds right thousand folds of time yeah that’s why I said obviously yeah I mean you you can’t you can’t grow at that rate without quickly exceeding the mass of the universe so clearly it’s going to hit some constraints the constraints that AI compute and very predictive I’ve
Actually predicted this over a year ago so over a year ago the shortage was chips neural net chips then it was very easy predict that the next shortage will be voltage step down Transformers so it’s you you’ve got to feed the power to these things so if you’ve got 100 to 300
Kilts coming out of a utility and it’s got to step all the way down to you know 6 volts that’s a lot of stepping down so now we’re in step down and this is my not that funny joke which is that they need Transformers to run Transformers
Cuz you know the AI is like there’s this thing called a transformer in AI it’s a it’s a neur a neural I don’t know it’s a combination of sort of neural Nets and they’re running out of Transformers to R Transformers then the next shortage will be electricity so I think next year
You’ll see the electricity that they just can’t find enough electricity run all the chips I mean during the chip crisis we certainly all did have many contacts fortunately we were able to master it together of course we all would like uh to avoid a second chip
Crisis but with regard to your to your comment on on power demand we all know today vehicles have 3 uh to 4 KW power demand for the peripherals but this is continuously going up and Tesla has recently launched the Cyber truck which I believe is mostly coming with 48 volt
Do you see this as a let’s say further disruption of automotive industry another technology change within Automotive yeah I I think you know the automotive industry has been living with 12 volts for a very long time a century roughly I think it it started off as six
Bolts and then they needed a a more powerful starter motor and then they doubled it to 12 volts although it’s it’s actually more like 13.7 volts you’re right absolutely yeah and and the bus voltage actually varies a lot for those since probably some electrical engineers in the audience like 12 volts
Is a very rough approximation but it’s it’s it’s really it’s really kind of a arbitrary low voltage and if you look at say power ethernet it’s running at 50 volts or roughly 48 volts and we set it at 4 48 volts because anything really above that you start to run into
Regulatory concerns and power ethernet is like I said roughly at that level but the advantage of obviously quadrupling the voltage is that you can substantially reduce how much copper or conductor is used in the car so you can use very small copper wires for you know it’s aough roughly a roughly a quarter
Not exactly a quarter but roughly a quarter as much as as much copper is needed for 48 volts as 412 so I think it’s it’s a logical move that’s that’s really the next step for the low voltage architecture for the car I think ultimately long-term War car will be 48
It’s it’s interesting that many people love electric vehicles and want to have them but some are harmed by a missing infrastructure that would be the same actually as the thing we will have lots of chips ready but we will have had the power to to operate them there’s a race
Between infrastructure and Technology right now and uh you’re also certain technology may win which is a problem because actually infrastructure should win we should have all the infrastructure we need is that correct yeah so thank you very very much thank you very much and thank you extremely
For 15 years of partnership and work together we’re inspired Always by your speed attitude or greatness and things come out thank you very much to Elon Musk all right and thank you for your support very very much appreciate so what you just saw there is Elon Musk being interviewed at Bosch connected
World and if you’re not familiar Bosch is a German engineering conglomerate they are massive and so they were interviewing Elon Musk about everything from AI to electric vehicles and I cut out some of the electric vehicle stuff cuz it’s not as related to artificial intelligence but there was still tons to
Talk about with AI let me go over a few points so first Elon Musk said self-driving full self-driving for everybody is actually really close now he has said this a lot and he’s been wrong a lot we’ve been at about 80% of full self-driving for many years now but
That last 10 to 20% is where it really gets difficult but I tend to be a techno Optimist and I actually do think that full self-driving on any road anywhere in the world is actually closer than we think and there are a lot of benefits of
That one that he pointed out is that currently usage of vehicles is probably about 10% of their actual life so you drive to work you drive to the store you park and then you go home and most of the time about 90% of the time your
Vehicle just sits there so all of a sudden if the vehicles can drive themselves they could potentially go run errands for you they could potentially be shared amongst multiple families in your neighborhood so the implications are really interesting to think about with this combination of AI and
Automotive now what he also touched on is that he has never seen a technology be built this quickly and specifically what he was talking about is AI compute the roll out of infrastructure to power AI models and of course most of that is being powered by Nvidia chips and that’s
Also why they have doubled their revenue quarter after quarter and now they are the third largest company in the entire world and they have a huge mode and one interesting stat that he pointed out is that compute coming online to power AI models is increasing by a factor of 10
Every 6 months that is insane to think about obviously at a certain point we’re going to reach our needed capacity and then we’re going to build out past that but I’m wondering if all of this buildout is going to be a one-time buildout or a continuous buildout and
That’s going to really dictate how successful these chip companies are in the long run now I tend to think that the Chip buildout is going to be continuous because new chips are going to come out new technologies are going to be discovered if we move away from the Transformers architecture at a
Certain point which you know we probably not for a while but those will need new chips so as new tech is invented new chips are going to be built to service those specific Technologies and I love what he said about the AI chip Rush being bigger than the gold rush and he
Also talked about AI robots and here’s the thing I’m super excited about robots I’ve been making a lot of videos about robots lately I had a prediction that humanoid robots were going to be a big thing in 2024 so I am very very bullish on robots but he said he hopes robots
Will be nice to us and he’s saying that a bit tongue and cheek but at the same time I think he’s a bit serious and we know that he’s afraid of AI in general which I’ll touch on in a minute but if you’ve seen any of these robot demo
Videos a lot of them are actually kind of mean to the robot whether they’re kicking the robot and trying to figure out if it can still stand after being kicked pushed there’s examples of cleaning robots where somebody continuously makes a dish dirty again and again and the robot has to keep
Cleaning it so there’s a lot of these examples where we’re not being very nice to robots and if they become come sentient that is not going to reflect well for us and he also said productivity will increase drastically because of AI and of course that is the
Most obvious statement ever and I think a lot of people are worried about their jobs and they probably should be but I think overall the productivity increases from AI will be beneficial to humanity and for all of these jobs lost I think it’s actually going to be jobs
Transformed and new jobs created as it has been with almost every other previous technology and he ALS also said we on the edge of the biggest technological Revolution that he could ever imagine so it’s super exciting to be here but he’s also worried about AI as I mentioned earlier he said we live
In the most interesting times and at times that has made him quite depressed because he thinks once AI reaches AGI there is a chance no matter how small it is that AGI takes over and becomes the dominant quote unquote race and as he said it made him depressed for a while
But the way way that he was able to reconcile all of it is would he rather be around during the AI apocalypse or not and he said yeah I probably would be so you know you never know exactly what Elon is thinking but he has actually said that exact thing multiple times in
The past in different interviews now I personally don’t think there’s going to be an AI apocalypse but of course who can predict if you’re creating life essentially life that is vastly smarter than you there is a chance that you are not the top of the food chain anymore
And one interesting tidbit that I had not actually thought about is okay right now we have kind of a chip shortage and chips are what power these AI models but what powers the chips it’s electricity and he actually thinks there might be an electricity shortage and he might be
Saying that because of course Tesla is becoming and kind of is a massive Energy company based in electricity so there’s this chance where Tesla with their supercharger network with their their battery products with their Solar Products become one of the biggest energy companies in the world so they’re
Not even just an auto company at that point and not only that he actually talked about a specific Hardware product that he thinks will have a shortage for in the near future and that is step down Transformers and I didn’t actually know what that was I had to look it up but
Basically you’re taking electricity from the wall or from the line itself and this is uh usually a massive amount of electricity and to power these tips you actually need to lower the voltage down to a very small fraction of what is coming in and that is called a Step Down
Transformer and he thinks we’re going to be running out of those soon so that’s super interesting I’m definitely going to go research who builds step down Transformers and this is not investment advice of course but that’s something that I’m going to be looking into so I thought that was a really interesting
Interview some of which we’ve heard before from Elon others I am hearing for the first time if you enjoyed this video please consider giving a like And subscribe and I’ll see you in the next one
Video “Elon Musk Predicts AGI, Self-driving, Unlimited Energy, Robots Coming SOON” was uploaded on 03/02/2024 to Youtube Channel Matthew Berman